In order to get the best result, there is a step by step plans to create a winning on sports betting. here is a few plans that you can follow..
1) Knowing your sports
you have to know which sports that you like and you understand about how the team schedules are structured, how postseason / playoffs / cup games are qualified, when games are played, league start / end dates, number of games in a season per year, impact of player injuries, etc., as all these factors are usually quite important in determining a good basis for a successful sports betting system.
2) Choose the best sports
Choose the most popular sports to bet for example, football, NBA, Horse, etc.. there is a potential winning on these sports.
3) Look back
Make sure that the sport you’re trying to develop a system for has readily accessible archived data of past games over a significant period of time. Creating a winning system will require you to look back into many years of previous stats and data, so it’s essential that those data are available for you somewhere to look into.
4) Finding the angle
After you get your best sport to bet, then you need to finding the angle. There’s one secret angle that creates far more successful betting systems than anything else there is out there! The first place where many novice gamblers go wrong is looking for an angle that doesn’t really have any effects on the result of a game.
Bottom line : what exactly makes a legitimate angle that justifies a good basis for a sports betting system!?
The answer is MOTIVATION.
You might immediately be able to point out just by common sense alone why the number of letters you receive in your mailbox today does not make sense as a good angle in a successful sports betting system because they don’t have any effects on the result of a game. But, the real answer why that angle is rubbish is because they don’t have any effects on player motivation. Whether you receive an even or odd number of letters in the mail today does not make your favorite sports team more or less motivated to win.
So, your goal is look out for any kind of angles which makes a team’s players more motivated to win than usual.
4) Back-testing
Once you’ve determined a legitimate angle to research on, the next step would be to back-test them. An angle you’ve looked upon may have worked well over the course of the last year, but a year’s worth of data is not enough to verify a system’s credibility.
5) Removing luck
Before you can file it away in the “winning systems” category, you must make sure that you’ve back-tested the data over a large enough sample size to ensure that your system is good not because of luck, but it is good really because it’s a solid formula.
6) Staking plan
Read how to win bet.
7) Additional filters
The filters that I most strongly recommend are an injury filter, a worst / best team filter, a season opening filter, and/or an unimportant games filter.
- Injury filter: If a team’s most important player is injured or out for the game for any reason, it’s usually best to pass betting on the game because you won’t have a very good idea on how the well the team’s backup can perform, and your wager will carry a greater amount of risk. In baseball, the most important player on a team is by far the pitcher. In basketball, it is often the player who scores the most points, although that may not always be the case. In American football, it is most often the quarterback.
- Worst / best team filter: If your team is the best or the worst team in the league, then it might be better to pass on betting them. The worst team in the league may just be too bad to risk your money on, and the best team in the league is usually too inflated in their public perceptions of winning odds or spread line to give you a good value on your bet.
- Season opening filter: It may be best to pass on any games that happen during the start of the season. It’s usually better to start betting only after a team has played 3 games. The beginning of the season can be the most unexpected part
of the year, and by betting on those games you can be making a bigger risk than usual.
- Unimportant games filter: Once a team is out of the playoffs race, you can assume that the players aren’t going to be playing at their hardest. Likewise, if a team has made it to the playoffs and can’t advance any further regardless if they win all of their remaining games, then they won’t be giving it 100% either. It is usually best to pass on these situations since you’ll be taking a greater risk than usual.
From these list I want to give you an example to apply it.
(NFL) - Betting against the Super Bowl champs – Winning the NFL Super Bowl is a remarkable achievement. One can develop a theory that once a new season starts, any team that plays against the defending Super Bowl champ will be more motivated to win than usual. Therefore, would it be a good idea to bet against the previous Super Bowl winner for the first 6 weeks of the season?
This is an angle that has a lot of merit because it definitely has an effect on player motivation. Players are more inspired to win when they’re up against the defending champion, and will often play harder as a result. Back-testing this theory over the years will give you the results that such a system will yield about 55% winners.
Remember, as long as you can win more than 52.4% of your bets (assuming the odds are -110), then you’re in profit over the long run. A winning rate of 55% is well sufficient for a winning betting system.
So there you go – make sure that you bet against the NFL Super Bowl champion on the spread for the first 6 weeks of every season, and you’ll be way up in profits over long term – even if you know nothing about sports!
Now, what about a staking plan? An A-B-C staking plan as I’ve outlined previously can make the system super-effective! Why? Because if the Super Bowl champ manages to cover the spread in week 1 (thus making your [A] bet loses), then their opponent in week 2 becomes even more motivated to win!
And if the champ covers the spread in both their first 2 games, then their 3rd opponent becomes super-motivated to win! By following an A-B-C staking system, betting against the most recent Super Bowl winner on the spread in the first 3 weeks of the season (only betting on the 2nd week if the first week loses against the spread, and only betting on the 3rd week if both the 1st and 2nd week lose against the spread, increasing your stake every time), you would have won each and every single one of these 3-game betting series in the entire history of the NFL! In the NFL, it’s recommended to buy 1 point if your team is an underdog of exactly +2.5 or +6.5, and buy a ½ point if your team is an underdog of exactly +3 or +7.
Yep – that’s the process on how to create a winning sports betting system. Use it as a guideline.
1 comments:
I don't have words to appreciate this blog. Found lot of informative tips on football betting....
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